山东省气候变化及其对冬小麦生产潜力的影响

Climate Change in Shandong Province and Its Influence on Potentiality of Wheat Production

利用全省 2 7个台站 1 96 1～ 1 998年的温度、降水、日照等基本气象要素资料 ,对山东省气候变化特点进行了分析 ,并对冬小麦生产潜力进行了计算、分析。结果表明 ,山东省年、季平均气温呈波动性增暖趋势 ,降水量呈减少趋势。气候变暖有利于生产潜力的提高 ,冬小麦气候生产潜力总的变化趋势是波动性的上升 ,但较光温生产潜力倾向率小 ,反映了小麦生育期内光、温、水的综合影响。

Based on the data of temperature,precipitation,sunshine from 1961 to 1998 at 27 meteorological stations,the climatic variation characteristics of Shandong Province are analyzed and the productive potentialities of the winter wheat is calculated and analyzed. The result shows that the annual and quarterly average temperature of Shandong Province has a tendency to increase the production of winter wheat,the precipitation has a tendency to reduce. The warmer climate is stable to the improvement of the productive potentialities. The total variation tendency of the climate productive potentialities of the winter wheat is to rise,but smaller than that of sunshine.