摘要
本文对1971～2003年韶关全市炎热、酷热天数进行统计,分析了年、月际及空间变化特征,并普查了历史天气图,得出炎热、酷热天气主要是在副热带高压控制下或热带气旋外围下沉气流影响下产生的。用ARIMA模型对7、8月份及全年的炎热、酷热天数进行预测,以供长期预报参考使用。
The Numbers of torridity and broil days respectively are statistically analyzed in Shaoguan from 1971 to 2003. Characteristics of their interannual, cross-monthly and spatial variations are analyzed with detailed investigation of historical synoptic charts. It is obtained that the torridity and broil weather phenomena occurred under the control of subtropical anticyclonic high, or under the influence of peripheral subsidence of tropical cyclones. The ARIMA model is used for forecasting days of torridity and broil weather occurrences in July, August and a whole year, for reference of long term weather outlook.
出处
《广东气象》
2004年第3期1-3,共3页
Guangdong Meteorology
