摘要
本文对某大城市某区脑血管系统疾病等四个主要死因死亡率建立了非平稳时序模型,据此描述各死因死亡率的季节性规律,并在此基础上进行了预报.文中还讨论了模型参数的物理意义及模型的适用范围等问题.
In this paper,non-stationary tim series models are set up and are used to express the seasonlities of four kinds of population death rate.The pred- ictions are illustrated based on the models set.Im addition,some related problems,such as the physical meanings of the model parameters,the appli- cable ranges of the non-stationary series model and multi-dimension AR mo- del,are disccussed.
关键词
死亡率
人
寿命
死因
时序模型
non-stationexy time series model
AR model
prediction
