中国带壳鸡蛋中沙门氏菌定量危险性评估的初步研究——Ⅱ.危害特征的描述与危险性特征的描述

The modeling of quantitative risk assessment on Salmonella in shell eggs in China Part Ⅱ: Description of characteristics of hazard and risk

为控制由沙门氏菌污染鸡蛋引起的食物中毒 ,对我国带壳鲜鸡蛋的沙门氏菌污染引起人群感染的危险性进行定量评估。带壳鲜蛋沙门氏菌定量危险性评估模型模拟了从农场到餐桌 (即从生产到消费 )由于消费带壳鲜鸡蛋引起沙门氏菌病的危险性。模型计算每年因食用被沙门氏菌污染的带壳鲜蛋而引起沙门氏菌病的人数平均为 5 3× 10 7人 (5 th～ 95 th百分位点值 :4 0× 10 5～ 2 2× 10 8)。与全国疾病监测点的监测数据预测的沙门氏菌病例数据吻合 ,表明该模型可以合理地预测危险性。通过改变该模型的重要参数 ,评估了几种降低危险性措施的效果 ,发现控制鲜蛋贮存的温度与时间是影响危险性结果的最重要因素。该评估方法的框架为我国今后进行其它类似的定量危险性评估提供了参考。

Based on the date obtained from surveys in China, a computative model was developed for the quantitative assessment of the risk of an epidemic. The model was used to assess the risk of %Salmonella % infection caused by comsumption of contaminated shell eggs. The model simulates a mean of 5.3×10 7 (5 th ～95 th percentile: 4.0×10 5～2.2×10 8) of human illnesses per year resulted from the consumption of these Salmonella -infected shell eggs. Because the predicted numbers coincide with the surveillance data quite well, the model can be considered a powerful tool to describe the farm-to-table continuum and to predict risk. Several mitigations were evaluated through changing some input variables and simulation showed mitigation of controlling storage temperature and time may potentially be most effective in reducing the total number of human illness. The model can continually be refined and updated for use in future risk assessments for shell eggs. Furthermore, the farm-to-table approach provides a framework for developing similar risk assessment methods for other pathogen-product pairs.