我国积极财政政策“紧缩效应”的形成机制及其检验

The Mechanisms and Tests for Contractionary Effects of Active Fiscal Policy in China's Economy

积极财政政策的扩张性效果依赖经济周期的阶段性,积极财政政策也有可能通过货币需求的利率渠道和汇率渠道等,产生对于实际产出的紧缩影响。本文利用误差修正模型和时变参数模型,通过估计货币需求相对于实际产出的弹性系数,发现我国的财政政策仅在1996年前体现出显著的"紧缩效应",而在1996年后"紧缩效应"逐渐减弱和消失,这说明在我国宏观经济调控中,积极财政政策和稳健货币政策的组合方式和期限结构发挥了比较稳定的政策效果。

The expansionary effects of active fiscal policy depend on the phases of business cycle.Active fiscal policy may have the contractionary effects on the real output through the channels of interest rate and exchange rate.By using the ECM models and the time varying parameter models to estimate the elastic coefficients of money demand respect to output, we find that there were the contractionary effects before 1996, and then it disappeared slowly after 1996.These empirical evidences show that the combination of active fiscal policy and robust monetary policy and the corresponding term structure of policy have played important roles in the macroeconomic controls.