流域水资源承载能力综合评价的多目标决策-理想区间模型

A Multi-Objective Decision-Making Ideal Interval Model for Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in River Basins

水资源承载能力评价,是一个由多目标组成的复杂巨系统,其难点是如何合理地建立评价该系统的数学模型。由于评价标准是区间概念而非点的概念,因而传统的多目标决策-理想点法把评价标准处理成理想点存在一定缺陷。为了克服这种缺陷,对多目标决策理想点法进行了改进,提出了一种新的评价模型——多目标决策-理想区间模型(MODMIIM),介绍了MODMIIM的原理,给出了其构成方法,并用MODMIIM对淮河流域的水资源承载能力进行了综合评价,结论为淮河流域的水资源承载能力总体上较弱。MODMIIM可操作性强,计算结果稳定、合理。与多目标决策-理想点法相比,MODMIIM具有更大的适用性。MODMIIM可广泛应用于各种水资源综合评价问题中。

Assessment of water resources carrying capacity is a complicated system with multi-objectives. The difficult problem is how to establish a rational mathematic model for water resources carrying capacity assessment system. Since the assessment standard actually is not a point but an interval, a defect exists in the traditional multi-objective decision-ideal point method of taking the assessment standard as an ideal point. In order to overcome the defect, a new method--Multi-Objective Decision-Making Ideal Interval Model (MODMIIM) is suggested, its constitutional principle and method are given for assessing water resources carrying capacity, and its detailed step is developed. In addition, MODMIIM has been used to assess water resources carrying capacity in the Huaihe River Basin. The result shows that the water resources carrying capacity in the Huaihe River Basin is rather low. Comparing with the multi-objective decision-ideal point method, MODMIIM has the features of good adaptation with strong maneuverability and the stable and rational calculated results. As a good and simple assessment method, MODMIIM can be used for comprehensive assessment of water resources.