基于信息扩散理论的洪水风险评估模型的研究及应用——以阿克苏河流域新大河暴雨融雪型洪水为例

Study and Application of Evaluation Model of Flood Risk Based on Information Diffusion Theory——Take Storm-Snowmelt Flood in the Xindahe River of Akshu River Basin as an Example

针对新疆一些河流实测洪水系列较短、传统的统计模型进行风险估计难以胜任的特点,引入了信息扩散理论的模糊数学方法,提出了洪水风险评估的实用模型,并以新疆阿克苏河流域新大河暴雨融雪型洪水为例,进行洪水风险估计,结果令人满意。

According to the character that there are not enough realistic observed flood series in some rivers of Xinjiang and it is difficult for traditional statistic model to estimate flood risk, an information diffusion based fuzzy method is introduced to present a practical model for assessing storm-snowmelt flood risk in the Xindahe River of Akshu River Basin, with storm-snowmelt flood in the Xindahe River of Akshu River Basin as an example. The application results show that the model is reliable.