摘要
本文借鉴国际上的动态跨时期一般均衡模型 ,结合中国的实际情况建立了一个小国的开放宏观经济模型 ,探讨了关税、货币供给、政府支出以及生育率等要素对均衡汇率的影响。在模型分析的基础上 ,本文利用简约计量方程估计了人民币均衡汇率 ,对各经济基本要素与均衡汇率的长期协整关系进行了经验分析 ,并提出了相关政策建议。
Using inter-temporal approach to the current account, an open economy model of small country is provided. This model brings tariff, money supply, government spending and fertility, etc., into a uniform analysis frame and explores the relationship between these fundamentals and equilibrium exchange rate. Moreover this paper uses advanced econometric method and reduced\|form econometric equations to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB, get the fundamental s that have relation of cointegration with equilibrium exchange rate, and reache s some relative conclusions.
出处
《世界经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2004年第8期18-25,共8页
The Journal of World Economy
