中国外汇储备规模实证检验研究

An Empirical Research on Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserve Scale

外汇储备在平衡国际收支、稳定汇率和偿还外债中发挥着重要的作用,但过量的外汇储备增加了通货膨胀的压力、降低了社会经济效率。中国的外汇储备长时期以来一直保持在高水平,文中对这一现象进行了探讨,对中国外汇储备规模进行实证分析并得出结论:中国目前外汇储备大大高于国际公认的合理储备水准。

FER(foreign exchange reserve)plays an important role in balancing income and payments, stabling foreign exchange and paying foreign debts. However excessive FER not only increases pressure on inflation, but also decreases social and economical efficiency. So discussing on suitable scale of FER has profound meaning. Chinese FER scale has been on a high level for long time, and the paper discusses it. According to related western theories on FER scale, the paper analyzes Chinese FER scale in positive method and draws a conclusion that Chinese FER scale is much higher than that of international standard.