贺兰山东麓酿酒葡萄霜霉病流行规律及测报技术

Studies on the epidemical regularity and prediction technology of grape downy mildew disease in Eastern Helan Mountain

通过2001-2003年对贺兰山东麓酿酒葡萄霜霉病的系统调查,初步明确葡萄霜霉病在当地的消长规律。对影响该病流行的相关气象因子进行逐步回归分析,组建了贺兰山东麓葡萄霜零病流行的预测模型,并用历史数据对该模型进行检验,其预测7 d病情指数的准确度为79.46％;用该模型预测2003年的病情指数,其预测7 d病情指数的准确度为87.73％。

According to the systematic investigations on grape downy mildew disease in the eastern hills of Helan Mountain during 2001-2003, the epidemical tendancy of the disease was preliminarily studied. By stepwise regression analysis, the weather factors related to the epidemical disease were selected. The regression model for predicting the epidemical disease was set up in the east of Helan Mountain. The model was examined using the disease indices of 2001 - 2003 and the related factors. The results showed that the accuracy of prediction for 7 days was 79.46% . Based on the data, the model was used to predict the disease indices in 2003 and the results showed that the accuracy of prediction for 7 days was 87.73% .