当前人民币汇率趋势与我国汇率制度改革

Reforming Our Exchange Rate System in the Light of the Current RMB Exchange Rate Trend

近来,关于人民币升值的问题成为国内外金融界关注的焦点。由于短期人民币汇率的升值趋势和人民币汇率长期的贬值趋势,构成了目前汇率趋势进退维谷的两难。我国目前实质上是钉住美元的固定汇率制,这种汇率制度已经暴露出许多问题。从当前我国汇率制度及其缺陷入手,结合国际上汇率制度选择的理论依据,我国汇率制度现阶段的发展方向应该是实行真正意义上的有管理的浮动汇率制度。

Recently, the issue concerning the appreciation of RMB has become the hot topic attracting the financial circles' attention both abroad and at home. It is anticipated that in the short term RMB tends to appreciate but it tends to depreciate in the long term. Thus, the trend of RMB exchange rate is in a dilemma. In fact, at present we are acting on the fixed pegged -dollar exchange rate system, which has brought about a series of problems. This paper, on the basis of analyzing our current exchange rate system--particularly its defects, presents a discussion on the theoretical basis for the applied exchange rate systems in the world. According to the author, the present orientation of our exchange rate system should be a managed floating exchange rate system in the proper sense.