经济学方法论的分水岭:如何认识和处理不确定性

How to Perceive and Cope with Uncertainty: A Line of Demarcation in Methodology of Economics

自李嘉图以降,经济理论成为只考虑在“理性人”及其完全知识假设下的理想的确定的经济活动。虽然这种排除不确定性的处理方法远离现实经济并遭到非主流经济学家持续的批判,但是直到凯恩斯革命之时,主流经济学家也没有真正重视不确定性。奈特,特别是凯恩斯,有关对自李嘉图以后的主流经济学方法论的批判和他确信经济行为是受不确定性和不可决定性支配的思想,在现代经济理论中得到突现。事实上,如何认识和处理不确定性,构成了经济学方法论的分水岭。

Since D. Ricardo's theory came into being, the research of economic theory has only been confined to the consideration of 'rational man' and to the idealistic and certain economic activities under a total knowledge hypothesis. Although the way of expelling uncertainty is far away from real-life economy and is confronted with constant criticism from non-mainstream economists. Main -stream economists didn't attached importance to uncertainty until J. M. Keynes' Revolution. F. H. Knight's criticism ( especially from J. M. Keynes) about the post-D. Rocardo main -stream economy methodology and his thought that economy activities are dominated by uncertainty and undecisiveness take a conspicuous place in modern economic theory. In reality, how to perceive and deal with uncertainty constitutes a striking demarcation of economy methodology.