一种用于评价全球气候变化对中国南方水稻生产影响的效应模型——RCCMOD

RCCMOD:An Effect Model to Assess the Application of Global Climate Change on Rice Production in Southern China

将自主研制的水稻栽培计算机模拟优化决策系统(RCSODS)改造为适于全球气候变化影响评价的水稻效应模型(RCCMOD);利用中国南方9个有代表性样点的水稻区域试验资料与同期同地的天气资料,对RCCMOD进行可靠性检验;将RCCMOD分别在研究区域基准气候(Baseline)和3种基于大气环流模型(GCMs)的(2×CO2)气候变化情景下运行,并将模拟结果与同样条件下CERES Rice模型的模拟结果进行了比较,两者基本一致。

The RCSODS model developed by the authors before was modified into an effect model (RCCMOD) used as a tool to assess the applications of global climate change on rice production in China;the RCCMOD was validated and calibrated based on the crop data and weather data collected from 9 sites in southern China;then the RCCMOD was run respectively with the baseline weather (1960—1997)and three GCM-based climate change scenarios of (2×CO2) and finally a comparison was made between the simulated results of RCCMOD and those of CERES-Rice under the same conditions and an agreement was obtained for both.