植物病害时空流行动态模拟模型的构建

Development of a stochastic model simulating spatio-temporal dynamics of plant disease epidemics

一个描述在二维空间中单一种植或混合种植的植物群体内病害时、空流行动态的计算机随机模拟模型构建完成。模型由寄主、病原 2个组分和病斑产孢、孢子传播、孢子着落、孢子侵染、病斑潜育、寄主生长、病害控制等一系列代表病害流行生物学过程的子模型构成。模型采用了面向对象的程序设计方法 ,用C ++语言编写 ,能以病害流行曲线图、空间分布图、数据列表等方式显示模拟结果。测试结果表明 :模型能反映植物病害流行过程的本质规律 ,既可作为植物病害流行学教学工具 ,帮助学生理解病害流行的时、空动态规律和不同因子对病害流行的影响 ,也可以作为研究工具 。

A two-dimensional stochastic spatial contact model was developed to simulate spatio-temporal dynamics of plant disease epidemics in a pure or mixed cultivation. The model focuses on the interaction of hosts with pathogens and integrates several key underlying processes governing epidemic development, including sporulation, spore dispersal, deposition, infection, incubation, plant growth and di-(sease) management. The model was programmed with an object-oriented design and coded in C++. (Si-)(mulation) results can be outputted either as disease progress curves, a spatial map of disease distributions or as a tabular data list. The model can be used either as a research tool to investigate many aspects of disease epidemics or as a teaching aid to help students to understand the effects of key underlying processes on spatio-temporal dynamics of plant disease epidemics.