预警等级预报——一种新的地震预报发布形式和对策的思考

Forecast of Warning Level──A New Proclamation Form of Earthquake Prediction and Thoughts on its Countermeasures

本文回顾了我国地震预报发布形式的演变过程 ,分析了目前发布地震预报面临困境的主要原因。在分析了其他一些灾害的预警等级预报发布形式后 ,对地震预警等级预报发布的可行性和应当采取的对策进行了讨论 ,认为地震预警等级预报的发布 ,是实现真正意义上地震减灾的一种可行方法。最后提出了一些实施地震预警等级预报前仍需认真研究的问题。

The paper reviewed the development of proclamation form of earthquake prediction in China and analyzed the main reason of the difficult position facing now in proclaiming. After referring other disasters′proclamation of warning level, the feasibility and countermeasures of announcing earthquake warning level are discussed, and made a conclusion that it is a practical way to reduce earthquake disaster essentically. At the end of the article, several questions that still need seriously to be studied before putting forecast of earthquake warning level in practice.