外强迫对北半球冬季大气环流年代际变化影响的数值模拟

Numerical Simulation of Influence of the Outer Forcing on DecadalVariability of General Circulation of Atmospherein Northern Hemisphere Winter

利用IAP/LASGGOALS模式模拟研究了人类活动和太阳活动对北半球冬季大气环流年代际变化的影响。模拟结果表明,温室气体是影响大气环流变化的一个基本因子,即考虑了温室气体浓度变化的GOALS模式可以很好地反映近50年来大气环流年代际变化的基本特征,同时由于太阳活动和硫酸盐气溶胶的影响,使得大气环流年代际变化的模拟结果更接近观测事实。东亚大槽和北美大槽1960年代中后期明显偏强及1980年代后期显著减弱,以及从1960年代开始西伯利亚高压的减弱和北太平洋涛动(NPO)的增大趋势。最后初步分析了该模式对中国东部气候变化的影响,该模式亦能较好地反映中国东部气候的年代际变化特征:1960年代中后期明显的偏冷时期和1980年代中期开始的显著增暖期。

The influences of the human being and solar activities on interdecadal variations of winter circulation in Northern Hemisphere was simulated using IAP/LASG GOALS model. The results show that the greenhouse gas is one of main basic factor on impacting circulation. Obvious interdecadal variabilities of general circulation of atmosphere in the recent 50 years were simulated well by GOALS model with Greenhouse gas concentration. Meanwhile, due to impacting of solar activity and sulfate aerosol, the circulation pattern is similar as observation. Such as East Asian and North American troughs were apparent stronger in mid and late 1960′s and remarkable weaker in late 1980′s. From 1960′s, Siberia High decreases trend and North Pacific oscillation (NPO) increases trend. Finally, the influences of GOLAS model on climate change in East China are analyzed. It shows that GOALS could reflect the characteristics of interdecadal variability of climate in East China, e.g. obvious colder period in mid and late 1960′s and remarkable warming in winter from mid 1980′s.