塔里木河中下游农户能流分析及生态经济分形特征

Analysis on the Energy Flow of the Farmer Households and the Characteristics of the Eco-economic Fractals in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Tarim River

能流分析和分形理论是农业生态经济系统定性研究和定量分析的重要手段之一。把农户作为“分形元” ,以尉犁县兴平乡达西村 4 0个农户为研究对象 ,在绿洲农业生态系统能流分析基础上 ,对不同经营类型农户的生态经济特征进行分形研究 ,结果表明 :(1) 5类农户从总体上都显现生产经营结构单调 ,能量利用和转化链条短 ;牲畜养殖是唯一的次级生产系统 ,能量转化率低 ,增效不明显。 (2 )农田亚系统是农户生产力的主体 ,棉花生产现在和今后若干年内仍将是农户的支柱产业。 (3)基于农户分析的生态效益和经济效益之间没有相关关系 ;生态效益高 ,并不意味着经济效益也高 ,反之亦然。农户生产系统总体的生态经济协调发展水平不高。

Analysis on energy flow and fractal theory is one of the important means in the qualitative research and quantitative analysis on the agricultural eco-economic systems. In this paper, a fractal study on the eco-economic characteristics of the different economic patterns of 40 farmer households in Daxi Village, Xingping Township, Yuli County, Xinjiang, is carried out. Yuli County is located in the northeastern marginal zone of the Tarim Basin, its area is 5.98×104 km2, the annual precipitation here is 43 mm but the annual evaporation is as high as 2 910 mm, the annual temperature is 10.7 ℃, the accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ is 4 184 ℃, and the frost-free period varies in a range of 144～210 days. In the county, the population is 102 182, the areas of farmlands, orchards, woodlands, and grasslands are 3.536×104 hm2, 3190 hm2, 2.176×105 hm2 and 8.638×105 hm2 respectively. The results are as follows: (1) The production structure of the farmer households engaging in 5 economic patterns is generally unitary, the chains of energy utilization and transformation are short, breeding of livestock is the only secondary production system, the energy transformation rate is low, and the increase of economic returns is not so obvious; (2) Cropland subsystems are dominant in the productivity of the farmer households, and cotton production is the pillar industry of the farmer households at present and in next some years; (3) The analyzed results based on the farmer households reveals that there is no correlation between the ecological benefits and the economic returns. The balanced eco-economic development level of production systems of the farmer households is not so high.