中国货币政策分析:1998-2002

The Analysis of China's Monetary Policy in 1998 - 2002

本文总结了1998年至2002年间中国货币政策的实践。通过相关分析和Granger因果关系检验,发现中国基础货币与货币供应量之间不存在显著相关关系,货币供应量的变动呈现一定的内生性。建立向量自回归和向量误差校正模型,发现长期内产出的变化与货币供应量的变化没有必然联系,在长期货币是中性的,而货币供应量在短期和长期对物价水平都有影响。本研究还讨论了中国货币政策工具选择、利率政策的作用和外汇对冲操作问题,提出应增加央行国债持有量,解决因外汇占款增加带来的对冲操作工具不足问题。

This paper reviews the monetary policy evolution from 1998 to 2002. It is shown that there is no significant correlation between monetary base and broad money, and money supply shows endogenous through correlation analysis and Granger Casualty test. The VAR model proves that in long- run money is neutral, however, money variable affect prices in both short - run and long run. Other issues as monetary policy instruments, effects of interest rate and the sterilization of foreign exchange are discussed also.