基于小波分解的西太平洋副热带高压模糊推理预测

A PREDICTION OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH BASED ON WAVELET DECOMPOSITION AND ANFIS MODEL

基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,讨论了西太平洋副高脊线与其前期位置的相互关系,并在此基础上用小波分解和自适应模糊推理方法,对副高脊线进行集成建模和预测。基于小波分解重构的副高脊线短期活动集成预测结果表明,该方法可有效降低预报难度,明显改进和提高了副高脊线短期活动的预报准确率。

Based on the data of NCEP/NCAR, the relationship between the ridge line of western pacific subtropical high and its prior state was discussed. The method, based on wavelet decomposition and ANFIS can effectively decrease the prediction difficulty and evidently improve the prediction precision of the western pacific subtropical high ridge line.