基于GM(1,1)改进模型的电网负荷预测方法

LOAD FORECASTING BASED ON IMPROVED GM(1,1) MODEL

通过对原始数据进行处理和改变微分方程的初始条件,建立了基于边值条件修正的GM(1,1)改进模型,并用该改进模型对地区电网负荷进行预测。实例证明,改进的模型对于生成序列和原始序列的预测值具有指数修正效用,可大大降低预测误差,提高预测精度。

By processing the original data and modifying the initial condition of differential equations, an improved GM(1,1) model based on the modification of boundary condition is established and applied to the load forecasting of regional power network. The calculation results of actual examples show that the improved model can exponentially modify the forecasting values from generating sequences and original sequences, so the forecasting error can be decreased significantly and the forecasting accuracy can be improved.