中国石油安全战略构想

The Strategy Framework for China's Oil Security

随着中国经济高速增长对石油需求的快速增加和石油进口依存度的增大,中国石油供应安全在动荡不安的世界石油市场中显得越来越脆弱。在中国原油进口即将超过1亿t的时候,我们面临的挑战不仅仅是保证一时的供需平衡,更重要的是必须把石油安全纳入国家经济安全战略之中。本文分析了世界石油市场和中国石油经济的未来演化趋势并定义了对于中国石油安全战略至关重要的三个时点。在此情景下,定义了中国石油安全战略的三个战略安全带。

China's oil supply is increasingly vulnerable in the turbulent world oil market with its import de-pendence going up constantly and mounting pressure to meet strong demand brought about by strong economic growth momentum. The challenges facing the Chinese government are not just to maintain the balance between oil supply and demand carefully for the time being. The most important is that the government has to think about how to put the oil security on the top agenda of national economic security strategy while China's annual oil import is exceeding 100 million tons. In this context, the paper delineates the evolution of world oil market and China's economy and oil system by the first half of this century and delimits three critical timing points for China's oil security strategy therefore. The three strategic zones are conceptualized thereafter to build up an analytic framework for China's oil security strategy.