对第五次全国人口普查数据中总量和结构的估计

Estimation of Size and Structure of Chinese Population by the Fifth National Census

本文对第五次人口普查有关数据进行粗略分析后发现 ,官方公布的人口总数与年龄结构存在一定程度的不吻合。第五次人口普查公布的未成年人口数量过低 ,由此估计的总和生育率甚至低于政策生育水平 ,令人难以置信。文章在分析了出现这种现象的各种可能性后 ,对目前中国生育水平进行了估计。

This paper observed contradiction between size and structure of Chinese population based on the information of the fifth national census data issued by the China State Statistical Bureau. Evidences show that the size population aged 0～14 is underreported, and the estimated Total Fertility Rate is too low to be reliable. The author also analyzes some possible reasons of this phenomenon, and gives some suggestions for adjusting the fertility level.