有关区域合理人口规模定量研究方法的讨论

Discussion on Quantitative Analysis Method of Regional Reasonable Population Size

区域合理人口规模的定量研究具有显著的政策涵义 ,因此应该更严谨地评估其研究结论的准确性。本文以上海浦东新区为例 ,简要介绍了EOP -MM和P -S两种模型估算的该地区未来可能的适度人口规模 ,并在此基础上 ,讨论了以上两个模型的优势和不足 ,最后提出了选择区域合理人口规模定量研究模型的标准。

Since policy implications are outstanding in quantitatively analyzing the regional reasonable population size, it is even more necessary to evaluate strictly the accuracy of the research outcome. This paper takes East Huang Pu Area as an example, introducing briefly the possible reasonable population size in this area in the future by the EOP-MM Model and P-S Model. Based on that, the paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of both models and puts forward the standard of selecting models for the quantitative analysis of regional reasonable population size.