可持续发展的成本效益分析

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Sustainable Development

成本效益分析 ,是实现可持续发展的主要分析方法之一。可持续发展成本至少包括自然环境成本、资源成本、经济成本和社会成本 ,可称之为“全成本” ;效益可以用财富的概念来代替 ,财富包括人造物质财富、自然物质财富、人力资本财富和精神财富。这四部分财富的增量 ,可称之为“全财富增量”。在此分析基础上 ,可以用“净财富增量”的概念来表示一个国家或地区在一定时期内可持续发展的净效益。“净财富增量”大于 0是可持续发展的必要条件。借用世行“调整后的储蓄净额”指标 ,实证分析 1 998- 2 0 0 2年中国的净财富增量 ,提供了一个意义不同的思路。要之 ,必须在净财富增量大于 0的约束条件下 ,组织和配置资源。为此 ,要建立和完善可持续发展的制度与法制、要利用市场机制和民众力量搞好环保、要做好成本分析基础工作、要制定中长期投资规划。这些是实现可持续发展的主要政策思路。

The COST of sustainable development, which includes the cost of natural environment, of resources, of economy and of society at least, is termed 'Whole Cost', while BENEFIT may be replaced with the concept of wealth, covering man-made material wealth, natural material wealth, human capital wealth and spiritual wealth, and the increment of the four may be generalized as 'Increment of Whole Wealth'. These analyses may provide a basis on which the concept of 'net wealth increment' may be adopted to represent the net benefit of the sustainable development of a country or an area during a time. That is, it is the prerequisite for sustainable development to have net wealth increment above zero. Then the paper analyses China's net wealth increment in terms of the 'adjusted net savings' of the World Bank. The paper also compares net wealth increment index system with the efforts of calculating 'green GDP'. It finally proposes some strategic measures to promote the sustainable development of contemporary China.