盲信息的模糊评价模型在电网规划中的应用

THE APPLICATION OF FUZZY EVALUATION OF BLIND INFORMATION IN ELECTRIC NETWORK PLANNING

针对不确定性因素能极大地影响电网规划方案正确性的实际情况,简要地分析了现有的处理该问题的几种方法,具体分析了隐含于线路费用中的政策、环保、经济的不确定性,给出了网络节点的电源出力、负荷值的不确定性信息的描述方法,提出了用盲数表示电网规划中大量不确定性信息的概念;所给出的盲数模糊评价方法可以很好地描述规划者对规划方案的满意程度,使得所建立的模型能最大程度地表现电网规划中的不确定性因素并适合用进化类算法优化计算,文中所给出的盲数计算技巧可显著地减少运算量,减小了大量信息处理带来的应用困难,18节点算例结果验证了模糊评价模型的有效性。该模型具备处理多种不确定性因 素的能力,为电网规划理论和方法的完善提供了又一种有效的方法。

To take into account the influence of uncertainties in power network expansion planning, several methods to deal with uncertainties were analyzed and blind number is recommended. The uncertainties are contained in the policy, environment protection, economy development, which finally result in the variation of line cost, generator capacity, and load forecast. The fuzzy evaluation of blind-number are deduced and used for planner's satisfactory extent formulation. The proposed model can fully consider the uncertainties in electrical power network planning and apply with evolutionary algorithm easily. Tips proposed can reduce computation greatly and make the model easier to be applied. The model, which possesses the capability of effectively dealing with manifold uncertainties, can be looked as an effective way in some aspect to perfect the network expansion planning theory and method. The model is tested by a 18 buses system.