关于中国1990年代低生育水平的再讨论

Further study on low fertility of China in the 1990s

本文根据全国第五次人口普查样本计算了 1 990年代各年份的分性别平均初婚年龄 ,这一结果再次表明这一时期中初婚年龄有显著提高。本文还根据以往历次调查的各年份年龄别生育率按队列计算了累计生育率 ,结果发现 2 0 0 0年时各队列的累计生育率水平高于五普数据中各队列的平均活产子女数。本文还就队列累计生育率计算结果详细分析了 1 990年代终身生育水平的趋势。这些分析从一个新的角度说明 ,1 990年代各队列的终身生育水平也在发生显著的下降 。

This paper presents China's yearly mean age at first marriage by sex in the 1990s calculated from the 2000 population census original sample data. The results turns out a rapid rising for both male and female, indicating postponement in mean age at child bearing by parity of women. Then this paper provides cumulative fertility by cohort at the end of year 2000 calculated from fertility data by age from previous surveys and the 2000 population census, which is found generally higher than the mean number of children ever born correspondingly reported in the 2000 censes. Analysis is carried out on such results, and turned out, from a new angle, that life-time fertility level kept declining in the 1990s towards the fertility level required by current fertility policy.