基于嵌套Logit模型的中国省际人口二次迁移影响因素分析

Determinants of Inter-provincial Migration in China: Nested Logit Models

本文主要根据中国第五次人口普查 1‰抽样数据 ,采用嵌套Logit模型 ,考察和分析1 990年代后期中国省际人口二次迁移的主要影响因素。通过对一般迁移、再迁移和回归迁移的考察分析发现 ,无论是个人因素还是区域经济因素 ,都对其迁移行为具有重要影响 :再迁移者明显受到潜在目的地区域环境因素的吸引 ;而回归迁移者对出生地的经济状况敏感程度较弱 ,但个人因素对其迁移选择有较大影响。

This paper applies three-level nested logit models to the 1‰ sample data of China's fifth census to examine factors affecting interprovincial migration in China in the late 1990s. It turns out that both personal factors and regional variables are important to migrants' decision: the onward migrants are obviously affected by the regional economy while the return migrants are less sensitive to regional economic differences but their personal factors are rather influential.