对中国改革开放以来经济周期的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on China's Economic Circle Since Reform and Opening-up

对中国经济周期的研究是许多经济学家普遍关注的问题。中国改革开放以来,按照理论界比较有代表性的"谷—谷"划分法,中国经历了四个经济周期。本文运用聚类分析方法对1978年～2003年中国经济周期进行了实证分析,得出与"谷—谷"划分法相同的结论,同时分析了2003年中国经济是否是新一轮经济周期的开端这一问题,并对2004年中国经济增长进行解释。

Ever since the reform and opening-up in China, according to the classical method 'wave-wave', China has gone through four economic cycles. Based on a empirical analysis and a cluster analysis on China's economic cycle from 1978 to 2003, the paper attempts to state that the year 2003 is a new beginning of China's economic cycles and interprets the increase of China's economy in 2004.