中国人口转变与经济增长的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in China

本文从现代协整理论出发，研究了中国人口转变、实际工资与实际产出之间的长期动态均衡关系及信息传导机制。结果表明：在出生率、婴儿死亡率、实际人均工资、实际GDP之间，至少存在单向的Granger因果关系；对数序列均为非平稳Ⅰ(1)序列。长期来看，死亡率的降低将导致出生率的降低。此外，还证明了出生率与死亡率均为经济系统的内生变量。

This paper investigates the long-run relationship between demographic changes, average annual wages and real per-capita GDP in China over the period 1952-2001.The relation- ship was found to be of non-stationary I(1)type in our unit-root test.The evidence suggests that at least one-direction Granger-causality exists in these two groups of variables.Our results also show that the fertility rate and infant mortality rate are endogenous to the economic system.