资本外逃对中国宏观经济的影响

Capital Flight in China:Impacts and Implications

针对近年来我国资本外逃呈现愈演愈烈的趋势，许多研究试图解释它的主要动机、方式和渠道，并运用不同的方法对其规模进行估算。区别于上述研究，本文利用模拟模型就资本外逃对我国宏观经济的影响进行定量分析。模型结果显示，一方面，资本外逃可导致实际利息率的提高，从而降低私人消费、投资和总需求，失业率提高；另一方面，资本外逃导致低通胀的环境，低通胀同时意味着我国承受了较低的货币贬值的压力．并且保持了出口增长。

Capital flight has become increasingly rampant in China in recent years,even though the government has imposed strict controls and stepped up its efforts to plug loopholes. Unlike previous studies that seek to explain the key causal factors behind the phenomenon,this paper analyzes the impacts of capital flight based on a simulation model.Capital flight is found to have led to higher real interest rates,lower personal consumption,lower investment and aggregate demand,and higher unemployment.On the other hand, it has also caused a relatively deflationary environment that resulted in a real depreciation of Reminhi and a higher level of net exports.