中国工业的资本收益率测算

The Rate of Return of Industrial Capital in China

资本收益率是影响养老金改革的关键因素。在分析养老金改革时，大多数国家采用Feldstein提出的方法测算资本收益率。本文首先估算了1982-2000年全国工业企业和国有工业企业的净利息支出，并首次用Feldstein的方法估计1982-2000年全国工业企业和国有工业企业的资本收益率。结果显示从1996年起，全国工业企业的资本收益率基本稳定在6％左右，国有工业企业的资本收益率约低1.5个百分点。

The rate of return of capital is a key parameter in the design of the pension re- form.We adopt the method developed by Feldstein to estimate the rate of return of capital for all industrial enterprise,and for state-owned industrial enterprises in the period 1982—2000.The calculation shows that the rate of return for all industrial enterprises is around 6%,and the rate of return for state-owned industrial enterprises has been lower by 1.5 percentage points since 1996.