中国转型期的信贷波动与经济波动

The Credit Cycles and Business Cycles in China during the Sconomic Transition

本文基于1981—2002年的季度数据,考察了在经济转轨的不同阶段我国信贷波动的特征,并通过时差相关分析和Granger因果关系检验,分析了信贷波动与经济周期波动的相互关系。结果表明,总体上信贷波动与经济周期波动基本同步,信贷扩张和收缩是产生经济周期波动的显著影响因素,但这种影响从20世纪90年代中期开始有所下降,同时,信贷波动的内生性开始显现。

Based on the quarterly data from 1981 to 2002,this paper investigates the credit cycles in China during the economic transition period and examines the interrelations between credit cycles and business cycles by time differences correlation analysis and Granger causality.