工程网络计划蒙特卡洛仿真及进度风险分析

Monte Carlo Simulation of Project Network Planning and Schedule Risk Analysis

运用网络计划蒙特卡洛仿真 (MCS) ,从宏观的项目层和微观的工序层分别进行进度风险分析。在项目层 ,仿真计算获取总工期的统计分布 ,据此计算某一计划工期的项目完工概率或完工风险 ,或是给定完工概率或风险水平制定合理的计划工期 ;在工序层 ,通过计算工序关键概率 (ACP)和关键指标 (ACI) ,掌握关键线路、关键工序分布情况 ,甄别高风险工序。此外 ,用VisualC + +开发了一个网络计划MCS软件 ,并应用于一个工程实例分析。

Using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), project schedule risk analysis is implemented at both the macroscopic level of project and the microscopic level of activity. At the project level, the statistical distribution of the project completion time can be obtained by simulation calculation. On the basis of this, the project completion probability or completion risk can be acquired by giving a project completion time, or a rational project completion time can be determined by giving a certain completion probability or completion risk level. At the activity level, two criticality indices, Activity Criticality Probability (ACP) and Activity Cruciality Index (ACI), are calculated, through which not only the distribution of critical paths and critical activities in the network are revealed, but also the high-risk activities are identified. Furthermore, a network planning software with the function of MCS has been developed using the Visual C++ and is applied to the schedule risk analysis of a project.