集成预测方法及其在灾情预测中的应用研究

Integrated Forecast Model and Its Application in Disaster Forecast

该文对神经网络和灰色预测两种预测模型进行了介绍,分析了它们的优缺点,并提出了一种集成预测方法,将两种方法集成,应用于对财产保险防灾减损来说最重要的灾情预测,克服了单一算法的不足,使预测的精度得到了提高,取得了良好的效果。

The paper introduces the neural network and gray forecast models,analyzes their advantages and disadvantages.The paper gives a integrated forecast model,which integrates the two models,apply it to important disaster forecast.It overcomes the shortcomings of single one,improves the precision of forecast.