SARS流行期的气候学尺度分析

Analysis of prevalent period of SARS with climatologically scale

对 SARS疫区流行期的气候特征作了统计分析。发现它们共同的特征是月均温在 5～ 2 2℃ ,降水偏少 ,约在 90 mm以下 ,其中疫情爆发月均温 13～ 17℃。在疫区 ,如果出现气温日较差较小、大气污染指数高的天气 ,大约 8d后出现疫情峰值。由于 SARS第一次在人群中发现 ,并且缺乏病毒学研究 ,本项研究的结论是解释性的。

The present paper is aimed at making an analysis of the correlation between the climatic conditions and the incidence of SARS in terms of incidence statistics, spatial comparison and model fitting. According to the present study, the incidence of SARS may have a close relation with the climatic conditions, though the prevalent season varies in different climatic zones. The study shows that the climatic conditions for SARS incidence can be as follows: (1) SARS is most likely to spread when the MMT is 13-17 ℃ and monthly precipitation is below 90 mm. (2) SARS is liable to get contracted when the MMT is 5-22 ℃ and monthly precipitation is below 90 mm. (3) Generally speaking, it is unlikely to get SARS contracted when the air pollution index is below 70. (4) Some signs show that strong ultraviolet radiation on the plateau areas may inhibit the spreading of SARS. (5) The epidemic situation of SARS is likely to occur when the inversion layer is apt to come into being. However, the above consumptions, though meaningful to some extent, should be stressed that, first of all, the conditions leading to SARS incidence vary from place to place and from person to person, it remains to be objective and open to questions; secondly, the climatic risks do not always prelude the prevalence of SARS. As an infectious disease, SARS cannot get contracted without the introduction or incidence of the infection source, thus efforts should be made in a comprehensive way to prevent its incidence, too. Therefore, all the above conclusions about the synoptic conditions such as temperature, precipitation as well as air pollution call for further investigation and examination under the laboratory testing conditions.