摘要
老龄管网的完整性维护是管道输送公司的主要任务 ,但维修预算受经济能力的制约 ,因此管理者必须决定怎样最好地分配维护资源。提出了用决策分析来优化管道完整性维护措施的方法。在进行决策树分析的基础上 ,建立了管道完整性维护决策的数学模型 ,对模型中的状态变量、决策变量、后果发生概率、效用函数等进行了初步研究 。
The integrity maintenance of the aged pipeline net is a main task of pipeline companies. However, the maintenance budget is restricted by economy, so the manager must decide how to distribute maintenance resources. Decision analysis is put forward to optimize measures of pipeline integrity maintenance. Based on decision tree analysis, established is a mathematic model of decision analysis of the pipeline integrity. Pilot studies are also made on some variables such as character variable, decision variables, probability of consequence occurring and utility function. Some suggestions are made on pipeline risk assessment and integrity maintenance.
出处
《天然气与石油》
2004年第2期19-22,共4页
Natural Gas and Oil
关键词
完整性维护
油气管道
决策分析
数学模型
Integrity maintenance
Oil and gas pipeline
Decision analysis
Mathematic model
