系统重构分析在油气选区前景评价研究中的应用初探

Application of system reconstructability analysis in evaluation of hydrocarbon prospective area

系统重构分析为一些难于用数学解析形式描述的问题、一些定性的质的关系与结构关系不断迅速变化的复杂异质系统问题提供了解决的基础。系统重构分析主要包括三方面内容 :因素分析、方案评估和专家意见。由于受选区地质条件、地理环境、资源潜力等自然因素和政策法规、投资环境、市场环境等综合因素的影响 ,油气选区前景评价工作复杂 ,不确定性因素多 ,单一指标的评价结果具有较强的偶然性和不稳定性。应用系统重构分析 ,构建了油气选区前景评价系统模型 ,初步解决了评价研究中数据序列缺乏、非线性很强的分析评估问题。

System reconstructability analysis is a widely developing field of general system theory. It provides a foundation for solving the problems of complex and heterogeneous systems with continuously and rapidly changing qualitative and mass relationship, as well as structural relationship, which are difficult to describe in the form of mathematic analysis. System reconstructability analysis consists mainly of factor analysis, program evaluation and expert opinions. Evaluation of hydrocarbon prospective areas is complicated with many uncertainties, due to the combined impacts of natural factors, such as geologic conditions, geographic environment and resource potential, as well as policy, law and regulation, investment climate and market environment. Evaluation made with a single index would have large eventuality and instability. A system model for evaluation of hydrocarbon prospective areas has been developed by applying system reconstructability analysis. It preliminarily solves the problem met in evaluation, such as the lack of data set and strong non-linearity.