初论工程地质量化预测结论的可靠性

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION ON THE RELIABILITY OF QUANTITATIVE PREDICTION CONCLUSIONS

本文首次提出一个新的研究领域-工程地质量化预测(评价)结论的可靠性分析。文中论述了不确定性的来源、种类和可发现性,初步建立了单种方法预测结论的显著性,多种方法预测的综合结论及其可靠性的一套判别方法。在膨胀土边坡坍塌规模预测中的应用表明使用这套方法能明显地提高预测的准确性。

In this paper, a new research field of engineering geology is put forward on the reliability analysis of quantitive prediction conclusions. The uncertainty, including its source, classification and finding, are discussed. A set of methods for discriminating the significance of prediction conclusions using only one prediction method and the reliability using several methods are set up. Application of these methods to prediction of collapse size of expansive soil slope shows that the accuracy of prediction is improved obviously by using this set of discrimination methods.