摘要
在分析巴斯模型和重复购买的产品生命周期模型等的基础上,提出经常购买模型,详细讨论该模型的参数的极大似然估计法,并采用实例检验模型及参数估计方法,分析模型的参数估计结果,在此基础上使用模型做产品销量预测,表明模型的参数估计方法及预测方法的有效性。
In this article, based on analysis of the innovation diffusion model of new product acceptance originally considered by Bass(1969) and the life cycle model of repurchased product, a frequent-purchased model has been presented, and the (maximum) likelihood estimation for this model has been discussed particularly. The model is validated with the actual data (from) typical commodities, and the results of parameter estimation are analyzed. The predictions on some commodities are (made) by using the model with the results showing that the parameter estimation of the model and the prediction approach is valid.
出处
《系统工程》
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第6期25-28,共4页
Systems Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(79970067)
关键词
产品生命周期模型
经常购买模型
极大似然估计
预测
Product Life Cycle Model
Frequent-purchased Model
Maximum Likelihood Estimation
Forecast
