建立铁路货运量季节性预测模型的研究

Study in Creating Seasonal Forecast Model for Railway Freight Transport Volume

铁路货运量预测是编制运输方案的依据,目前采用的预测方法,难以全面、科学地反映数据的内在结构和复杂性,以年度为单位预测时,误差不大,但按月度预测时,则误差较大。为此利用三角函数周期性的特点,辅以线性趋势变动,建立适合不同预测期限、不同预测精度的季节性预测模型,经实例检测能够较为准确地预测月计划运输量。

Railway freight transport volume forecast isthe base for establishing transportation plan. The currentforecast method couldn't reflect the internal structure andthe complicity of data in a complete and scientific way.When carrying out the forecast at annual basis, thedeficiency is ok; however, it becomes obvious when atmonthly basis. Benefiting from the periodicity character oftrigonometric function, assisting by linear tendency change,the paper establishes a seasonal forecast model that is fitfor different forecast period with different accuracy. Theactual application of this model shows that it can accuratelyforecast monthly transport volume.