基于流域水资源承载力平衡指数方法的海河流域水生态环境变迁研究

A Study of Water Ecosystem Evolution Using the Method of IWSD

利用修正后的“流域水资源承载力平衡指数(IWSD)”方法,研究了海河流域1960-2030年水生态环境状况的变迁过程。海河流域水生态环境在过去半个世纪中,经历了从良好到急剧恶化的过程,1980年至今是流域水生态环境恶化的高峰平台期。未来变迁趋势取决于南水北调和节水挖潜这两大战略的实施情况,利用情景分析法发现以下结论:①南水北调对于流域水生态环境恢复的贡献最大,节水挖潜其次;②为了保证流域水生态环境逐步恢复,南水北调和节水挖潜两大战略必须同步实施;③预计在最乐观情形下,2030年流域水生态环境恢复到20世纪70年代中期的水平。

Using a modified method of Index of Water Supply and Demand(IWSD),this paper studies the transitional track of water ecosystem in the Hai River Basin from1960to2030.In the past half century,the Hai River Basin suffered continuous degradation in water ecosystem.The situation of ecological degradation has becoming acute since1980s.Future trend will be decided by the combination of two strategies,water transfer from south to north and water saving.According to a method of scenario analysis,we found the following conclusions:①The strategy of water transfer from south to north plays a principle role in water ecological restoration,and the water saving plays a secondary role;②In order to ensure substantial improvement of water ecosystem situation,the two strategies are recommended to be implemented simultaneously.③Under the most optimistic conditions,water ecosystem in the Hai River Basin is expected to restore a similar level of middle1970s.