龙滩水电站入库洪水随机模拟研究

Stochastic simulation study on inflow flood of Longtan Hydropower Station

根据龙滩水电站所在流域的实际情况,建立多维自回归随机模型,由龙滩坝址以上流域内4个站区的日流量随机模拟入库设计洪水。通过对所建模型和模拟生成的洪水系列进行检验,表明利用多维自回归随机模型模拟龙滩水电站入库洪水是可行的。

In accordance with the actual situation of the watershed where the Longtan Hydropower Project is located, a multi-dimensional autoregression model was established to simulate stochastically the design inflow of the reservoin based on the daily flows measured at four hydrometric stations on the upstream of the Longtan Dam site. A verification on the established model and the flood series generated by simulation showed that it is feasible to simulate the inflow flood of the Longtan Project through multi-dimensional autoregression stochastic model