天峨水文站历史洪水首项经验频率置信区间估算

Estimation of first empirical frequency confidence region of historical floods recorded at Tian'e Hydrometric Station

历史特大洪水加入样本系列,对提高设计洪水精度起着关键作用。但由于特大洪水的稀遇性,以及随着实测系列的延长,其经验频率又具有不确定性,给频率曲线的外延带来任意性。采用引入对首项顺序统计量置信区间估计的方法,对首位历史洪水经验频率置信区间进行估算,指导频率曲线的适点配线,对设计洪水和设计暴雨分析计算工作具有一定的实用意义。

To add historical extraordinary floods into the sample infow series would play a key role in improving the precision of design flood. Nevertheless, the arbitrariness in the frequency curve extension is caused by the rarity of extraordinary floods as well as the uncertainty of empirical frequency resulted from the extension of the recorded inflow series. A method of first statistics confidence region estimate was introduced to estimate the first historical flood confidence region and to guide the curve fitting of the frequency curve, Which has a certain practical significance in the analysis and computation of design flood and design storm.