GM(1,1)灰色模型在尘肺患病人数预测的应用与评价

AppIying and Evaluating of Grey Model(1.1) in Forecasting Approach for the Number of Pneumoconiosis Patients

目的 探讨验证灰色模型在尘肺患病人数预测的应用效果。方法 利用该煤矿1996～1986年尘肺患病人数进行建模,并建立了数学模型X(I)=583e0.038(T-1)-452,作外推预测验证。结果该灰色预测模型的拟合程度较高,取得了较好的效果。结论灰色模型可应用于尘肺患病人数的预测。

Objective To test and verify applying effects of Grey Model(1,1)in forecastingapproach for the number of pneumoconiosis patients. Mathods Applying the number of pneumoconiosispatients of a coal mine in 1966～1986,a mathematical model was established [X(i)=583e0.038(t-1)-452]and outoard forecasting to test and verify. Results Precision of the mathematical model wasexceooent,Conclusion Grey Model(1,1)would be applied to forecast the number of pneumoconiosispatients.