论当前美国爆发的“中间性衰退”

A Discussion on Current "Intermediate Economic Recession" Coming into Being In U.S

20世纪末 ,美国经济在信息乘数加速纳指飙升、即时得力的客观调控合力作用下 ,扩张至极点。新经济亢进 ,在世界石油价格暴涨、联储提息使美国经济出现剧烈振荡 ,爆发了一次“中间性衰退”。理由是 :这次衰退是新经济背景下的现象经济与实际之间爆发的 ;实际经济下降领域主要在信息技术产业 ;现象经济也只是纳指遭受巨挫 ;这种衰退无周期性和同期性 ,危机程度轻 ,持续时间短 ;现象经济与实际经济脱节表现异常明显 ;学术气氛较浓 ,使人联想到“中间性危机”的丰富内涵。新经济调整、联储连续降息石油价格企稳今年下半年可望摆脱“中间性衰退”。

American economy had expanded to the utmost extent by the end of the 20th century owing to resultant of forces of acceleration of information multiplier, whirlwind-like rise of NASDAK index number and timely and effective macro-economic regulation. However, the American new economy that was once in excitement has come into an 'intermediate recession' due to lashes of world-wide sharp rise of oil price and great economic vibration as a result of raising of interest rate by Fed (The Federal Reserve Bank). Why do we call it 'intermediate recession'? There are the following reasons: 1. The economic recession came into existence between phenomenal economy and real economy under the background of the new economy; 2. The sector in real economy that has declined is only information technology (IT) industry; 3. Even in phenomenal economy only NASDAK index number has suffered setbacks; 4. There is no periodicity and simultaneity with this kind of recession, and the degree of crisis is comparatively low, duration of the recession will be short; 5. The manifestation of being disjointed between phenomenal economy and real economy is extremely visible; 6. There is a strong academic environment, that reminds people of rich connotation of 'intermediate crisis'. It is expected that the American economy can get rid of 'intermediate recession' in the later half of this year with strengthened regulation of the new economy, successive lowering of interest rate and stabilization of oil price.$$$$