中国污染变化的主要因素——分解模型与实证分析

THE MAIN FACTORS OF POLLUTION CHANGE IN CHINA: DECOMPOSITION MODEL AND ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

利用分解分析方法将中国工业污染变化分解为规模效应、结构效应、清洁技术效应和污染治理效应 ,并通过计量回归模型分析收入水平与这些因素之间的关系 .分解分析表明 :1992—2 0 0 0年期间 ,规模效应与结构效应增加工业污染 ,其中规模效应占主要部分 ;清洁技术效应与污染治理效应减少工业污染 ,其中清洁技术效应占主要部分 .计量模型的结果是 :结构因子与人均GDP之间存在倒“U”形曲线关系 ,广义技术因子与人均GDP之间存在对数线性关系 ,人均污染与人均GDP之间不存在倒“U”

Decomposition analysis is applied to decompose Chinese industrial pollution change into scale effect, structural effect, abatement effect and clean-production effect. And econometric models are developed to examine the relation between per capita GDP and relevant factors that correspond to above various effects. Decomposition of pollution change from 1992 to 2000 shows that scale effect and structure effect tend to increase industrial pollution with the main contribution from scale effect, and that clean-production effect and abatement effect tend to reduce pollution with the main part of clean-production effect. The econometric analysis finds that the structural factor and per capita GDP has an inverted U-shaped curve relation, and that the general technique factor and per capita GDP shows log-linear relation, but the inverted U-shaped relation between per capita pollution and per capita GDP does not appear.