灰参数GM(1,1)模型及其在电力负荷预测中的应用

GM(1,1)model with grey parameter and its application to power load forecasting

传统的GM(1,1)模型在参数a的绝对值较小的情况下近期负荷预测精度较高,远期负荷预测往往误差较大,这一定程度上是由于参数a在整个预测过程中保持不变而造成的。本文将参数a看作是具有灰色特性的灰参数,提出了灰参数GM(1,1)模型,并将该模型运用于中长期电力负荷预测的实例中,取得了较好的结果。

When the absolute value of the parameter α is relatively small the conventional GM(1,1) model is accurate in short-term load forecasting but has more errors in long-term load forecasting.To some degree this is because that the parameter α remains unchanged in the whole process of forecasting.The parameter α was considered as a grey parameter with grey characteristic in the paper and the GM(1,1) model with grey parameter was put forward to be applied in a long-term power load forecasting example.The result turns out well as expected.