摘要
传统的GM(1,1)模型在参数a的绝对值较小的情况下近期负荷预测精度较高,远期负荷预测往往误差较大,这一定程度上是由于参数a在整个预测过程中保持不变而造成的。本文将参数a看作是具有灰色特性的灰参数,提出了灰参数GM(1,1)模型,并将该模型运用于中长期电力负荷预测的实例中,取得了较好的结果。
When the absolute value of the parameter α is relatively small the conventional GM(1,1) model is accurate in short-term load forecasting but has more errors in long-term load forecasting.To some degree this is because that the parameter α remains unchanged in the whole process of forecasting.The parameter α was considered as a grey parameter with grey characteristic in the paper and the GM(1,1) model with grey parameter was put forward to be applied in a long-term power load forecasting example.The result turns out well as expected.
出处
《华东电力》
北大核心
2004年第8期1-3,6,共4页
East China Electric Power
基金
国家自然科学基金(50177017)
高等学校优秀青年教师教学科研奖资助项目
关键词
电力系统
灰色系统
灰参数
负荷预测
等维新息技术
中长期负荷预测
灰色模型
electric power system
grey system
grey parameter
load foreacasting
equal dimension and new information
medium and long term load forecasting
grey model(GM)