摘要
对江苏春季连阴雨和太平洋海温场的关系进行研究,发现二者相关显著.通过对海温场的最优化处理和稳定性检验,找到强信号区.然后采用逐步回归方法,建立预报模型,经试预报效果良好.
The relationship between SST field of the Pacific and spring continuous rain (or cloudy-rain weather for several days)in Jiangsu Province was discussed. The results showed that the correlation coefficient between them was significant. Then the strong signal area was discovered based on optimization disposal and stability test of SST field. Finally, the forecast model of spring continuous rain was formed using stepwise regression analysis. The verification proved that it has a better predictive effect.
出处
《科技通报》
北大核心
2004年第6期512-516,共5页
Bulletin of Science and Technology
基金
江苏省"333"人才培养资助项目(20050)
关键词
大气科学
春季连阴雨
海温
预报模型
atmospheric science
spring continuous rain
SST
forecast model
