确定万元GDP取水量定额方法的探索

Investigation on method for determining water withdrawal quota per ten thousand Yuan GDP

万元GDP取水量是水资源管理的重要宏观指标。本文提出用指数模型预测法和年下降率模型预测法预测城市取水量,并以上海为例,建立了上海市不同行业万元GDP取水量预测模型,计算出上海未来不同水平年万元GDP取水量的预测值。通过与发达国家和城市比较,以及对未来不同水平年取水量估算与上海市供水规划预测成果的对比分析,确定了上海市未来不同水平年、不同行业的万元GDP取水量定额。最后对确定的万元GDP取水量定额进行了评价,说明本文提出的预测、分析方法可以推广应用。

The water withdrawal per ten thousand Yuan GDP is an important index for water resources management.Two methods namely exponential method and descend rate method are suggested to establish the model for forecasting the water withdrawal.As an example,the water withdrawal per ten thousand Yuan in different level years in Shanghai is analyzed by using this model.Based on the comparison of water saving level between Shanghai and developed country and analysis on water supply projection for Shanghai,the water withdrawal quotas per ten thousand Yuan GDP in Shanghai for different sectors in different level years is determined.The evaluation of the forecasted result shows that the proposed method is feasible.