传染病季节流行现象预测猩红热疫情

Prediction on epidemic of scarlet with seasonal variational phenomenon

目的 分析辽宁省猩红热 195 0～ 2 0 0 2年历史疫情资料 ,建立外推预测模型对其疫情进行预测。方法 应用传染病季节流行现象 (Z -D现象 )对猩红热时间序列进行分析并作出预测。结果 对最佳截取点的月累计百分位数和流行年前兆升降比的相关分析 ,得出两者呈负相关 (R <O) ,回顾性符合率达 6 6 % ,外推性预测结果显示预测性效果较好 ,且提示 2 0 0 2年猩红热疫情仍呈上升趋势。结论 依据本年度猩红热的疫情资料 ,对下一流行年的疫情发生情况作出预测 。

Objective To analyse the data of scarlet in Liaoning province and to build up extrapolation model to predict.Methods Z-D Phenomenon was employed in studying the time series of the disease,and prediction was based on the extrapolation model.Results Correlation analysis,which was conducted between monthly cumulative percentage and predictive ratio of increase to decrease in incidence rate at the best cut-off point,showed that the coefficient was negative(R<0).The effect of prediction by Z-D Phenomenon was satisfied.Conclusion Z-D Phenomenon was suitable for prediction in scarlet,which epidemic would help to establish the measure to control the prevalence of the infectious disease.